The Culling has begun

The Culling has begun

Paul Dietrich a leading economist spelled it out to me a few years ago “Those companies that are marketing to the immerging market, have a smart corporate board making smart decisions and low debt with cash reserves are going to make it through this economy, everyone else is going to fall off a cliff”. That is exactly what is happening in the Drone/UAS business. The big fish are gobbling up the little fish and those companies who do not have the where with all to last are closing up shop. I’ve been through this before in 1994-1996 with the military downsizing in San Diego, again in 2008 with the mortgage and housing bubble and I am seeing the same thing now but is a condensed version. This business is barely getting off of the ground in the US and it is happening. However the one category that isn’t really addressed in the statement is viable product. Now I am finding that having capital can mean the difference of whether you have a viable product or not but it seems that the established companies with product inventory do not have the most viable products as I stated in my last blog post “Which is worse?”.

Part of it “The emperor’s new clothes syndrome” and the other is lack of exposure. You not only want to have the right tool for the job but you need everyone to know you have the right tool for the job. Let me try and break it down?

Firefighting

Gene Robinson of RPFlight systems uses the Spectra flying wing for search and rescue and firefighting. What makes this design optimal for observing wildfires is its lift, giving it the ability to just float on the thermal at the leading edge of the fire. Systems designed for forward flight don’t have the surface area to just sit there, floating on the thermal. Other systems with this capability are the UX5 by Tremble/Gatewing and the Zephyr II which are used mostly for agriculture. VTOLs can fly over a fire but you can’t shut them down and conserve on battery life.

Precision agriculture

This is where the VTOL capability has merit, flying low and slow with a multi-spectral camera measuring the overall health of crops, production estimates and detection of certain infestations. The ability to cover large areas is a concern but most farmers only want imagery over their whole field at the beginning of the harvest so they can determine the areas that are coming up slow so they can remedy the slow growth with better irrigation or fertilizer and be on the alert for infestations. Bugs don’t attack healthy plants so these week areas will be most likely area to get infestations first. You don’t need long flight capability if your just spot checking these trouble areas so VTOLs that fly low and slow are optimal. Multi-rotor VTOL is recommended for agriculture but a multi-rotor with stabilization so you minimize the vibration which distorts the spectral data from these cameras.

Surveying

This application is a balance between coverage and accuracy. Current technology leans toward manned aircraft for LiDAR due to the power requirements and battery weight. The greater the altitude the more area which can be covered but you sacrifice accuracy. Synthetic Aperture Radar is optimal for military application but there won’t be survey quality accuracy. UAS can get accuracy but flying low and slow limits the areas that need to be covered. The President of Tremble/Gatewing told me “UAS is perfect for that space that is too low for airplanes and too high for surveyors on the ground”. This is where you need a UAS to get accuracy under two centimeters, you don’t need to out of range of people shooting at you, if you are covering a large area and you have the time to get the job done. Then I would use an octocopter or a hexacopter which range in price from $250.00 to $4,000.00. In this industry you get what you pay for but you will be sold what you’ll pay for too. Do a thorough job of checking out the system. Gene Payson or Patrick Egan would be great resources to help you figure out what you need.

Oil and Gas

For GSR set up you need to have the contractor use a Panasonic Tough-Pad, not a Toughbook. The Toughbook is too large, a Tough-Pad will fit right in the nose of a Cyclops which only costs $5,400. You don’t need a camera unless you are flying FPV. For gathering GAMMA and geospatial data you need the capability to carry at least 20lbs and hover low to the ground once the geologist recognizes the geographic contour that indicates reserves under the surface and then the system needs to hover over that area and measure the GAMMA.

Communications relay

There is a real need for regional connectivity for remote areas. Google bought Titan UAS, the whole company, just for this purpose. There are companies out there which will accomplish this function. Long duration, days and weeks at a time. You have to really check out the system you are considering.

Know your niches

It’s just like anything else, not one size fits all. The right system for the job can make all of the difference and so can the wrong one.